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AIEL 2025


40th Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS)
University of Milano-Bicocca

Milan, 18-20 September 2025

A Map of Discontent: Economic Distress or Public Service Deprivation


Presenter

Marco Leonardi (University of Milan)


Coauthors

Marco Fregoni


Abstract

Recent Italian parliamentary elections in Italy, similar to those in other countries, have highlighted growing populist sentiments. This study examines whether such political discontent can be attributed to economic distress or a deficiency in public services, using new data on tribunal and hospital closures, which we consider exogenous. Economic distress in a municipality is identified through the cost of job loss for residents working outside the municipality. The findings indicate that hospital closures are significantly linked to the share of populist votes at the municipality level during the 2008, 2013, and 2018 Italian elections, while economic shocks identified by the cost of job loss show a weaker correlation.