Michele Raitano (Sapienza University of Rome)
Francesca Subioli
Exploiting VisitINPS archives, we investigate the entire individuals labour market histories from the entry year in the labour market up to 2021. Our aim is, thus, to compare across cohorts the evolution of labour market careers over time in Italy. In more detail, distinguishing individuals by entry cohorts and focusing on those entered from 1996 which are enrolled in the new NDC pension system we focus on the various possible drivers of unsuccessful career and low pension accumulation i.e. low earnings, non-standard contractual arrangements, periods spent without actual or notional contributions , comparing across cohorts and by individuals characteristics (e.g., gender, region and province of birth and residence, prevalent occupation, sector and type of activity) a series of long-term indicators about the success of their career: e.g. number of years spent in law pay, extent of periods in unemployment, low pension contribution accumulation. In particular we focus on the risks of being poor in each year and at the end of the observed career phase in terms of worked weeks (an indicator of work intensity) and contributions accumulation (a multi-year indicator of the success of the working career). In addition, we develop counterfactual scenarios to investigate main drivers of these risks (e.g., absence of a minimum wage, extent of part-time and temporary contracts, weak business cycle dynamics). We also distinguish the extent of these risks according to individuals characteristics (gender, occupational group, proxy of skills).