Manuel Serrano Alarcon (European Commission, JRC)
Josep Amer-Mestre
This paper investigates the factors explaining the sharp rise in sick leave prevalence. Using data from Spains Social Security records we analyse the evolution of the prevalence of days on sick leave across individuals and work factors and implement an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to examine each factors contribution to the rise in prevalence of sick leave. We document a 36% in the share of days on sick leave, common to a wide range of demographic and employment characteristics, including age, education level, sex, country of birth, industry sector, and employment contract. Observable factors such as population ageing, the expansion of employment opportunities, or longer healthcare waiting times account for only about 30% of the rise in days on sick leave. While musculoskeletal conditions remain the most common diagnoses, mental health disorders have seen the most dramatic relative increase, more than doubling among younger workers. Notably, mental health disease accounts for over 40% of the rise in days on sick leave among individuals under the age of 40. This highlights a concerning deterioration in mental health among the younger working population.