Francesco Fasani (University of Milan)
Simone Ferro, Elisabetta Pasini and Alessio Romarri
This study examines the impact of dispersed asylum seekers on local electoral outcomes in England from 2004 to 2019. We identify the causal effect of asylum seekers on electoral outcomes by combining variation from a dispersal policy with an IV strategy which predicts the allocation based on pre-determined public housing characteristics. Our IV results indicate a significant shift in the Conservative-Labour vote share difference, with a one within-area standard deviation increase in dispersed asylum seekers leading to a 3.2 percentage point rise in favor of the Conservatives at the local elections. We find similar effects in national elections and the Brexit referendum, with increased support for the Leave vote. Evidence from longitudinal survey data confirms that exposure to asylum seekers shifted votes away from the Labour Party and towards the Conservative one. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that this effect is primarily driven by asylum seekers from Muslim-majority countries and unaccompanied arrivals. Moreover, we find no significant impact on voting behavior from asylum seekers who are free to choose their place of residence. In exploring potential mechanisms, we demonstrate that while local exposure to asylum seekers only slightly alters public attitudes, it significantly increases the prominence of immigration in MPs' speeches in the UK Parliament.