× Homepage Programme Participants Location Social Events Presentation Instructions Practical Info

AIEL 2025


40th Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS)
University of Milano-Bicocca

Milan, 18-20 September 2025

The Productivity Impact of Global Warming: Firm-Level Evidence for Europe


Presenter

Elena Grinza (University of Turin)


Coauthors

Nicola Gagliardi and Francois Rycx


Abstract

We investigate the impact of rising temperatures on firm productivity using longitudinal firm-level balance-sheet data from private sector firms in 14 European countries, combined with detailed weather data. Our findings, based on control-function techniques and fixed-effects regressions, reveal that global warming significantly and negatively impacts firms’ TFP. Labor productivity declines markedly as temperatures rise, while capital productivity remains unaffected - indicating that TFP is primarily affected through the labor input channel. Sensitivity tests show that firms involved in outdoor activities, such as agriculture and construction, are more adversely impacted. Manufacturing, capital-intensive, and blue-collarintensive firms also experience significant productivity declines. Geographically, the negative impact is most pronounced in temperate and mediterranean climate areas.